In 2023, the lithium battery industry faced serious overcapacity issues, with lithium carbonate prices falling by about 70%. This led to a price war for battery cells, and the problem of the market only looking at prices but not products became increasingly prominent. Overcapacity will inevitably lead to a new round of elimination, and 2024 will still be a challenging year.
What new opportunities will emerge in 2024 in the face of the overcapacity of lithium batteries that the industry has to face?
Lithium battery stage and structural excess sodium battery usher in new opportunities
Whether it is competing for production capacity or price, the competition in the power battery market ultimately needs to return to the technological iteration ability and quality control ability of battery companies. On the one hand, technological capability is the main driving force for the development of the power battery industry, and technological level is the key to entering a new cycle.
The Chinese lithium battery industry has entered a stage of production capacity and structural surplus. In 2023, the average capacity utilization rate of power batteries is insufficient, and the capacity utilization rate of energy storage batteries is less than 55%. The lithium battery industry has entered a new stage of rational development, and only through healthy development can sustainable development be achieved. In the stage of benign development, the distribution of benefits in the industrial chain continues to return to a benign state, relying on technology and quality capabilities to stabilize operations in order to move towards the future.
The new turning point in 2024 will undoubtedly be sodium ion batteries. As a rising star in the energy storage industry and two wheeled vehicle battery swapping, sodium ion batteries have quickly emerged due to their abundant domestic reserves, wide distribution, low cost, long lifespan, wide temperature range, and high safety performance advantages.
At present, the industrialization process of sodium ion batteries is growing rapidly, and China is also continuously deepening the construction of the standard system in the field of sodium ion industry. As a professional supplier of sodium ion battery materials and battery products, CNAE has also established overseas research institutes to actively explore new energy technologies.
Advantages of sodium battery low-temperature fast charging
CNAE sodium ion batteries have the characteristics of fast charging and long lifespan at low temperatures, with a working temperature range of -45 ℃ to 80 ℃. The low-temperature performance advantage of sodium batteries is significant, with a capacity of over 90% maintained at -20 ℃.
Relying on an open 3D structure, sodium ion batteries have good rate performance and can adapt to responsive energy storage and large-scale power supply, which is another major advantage of sodium batteries in the field of energy storage. In terms of fast charging capacity, the charging time of sodium ion batteries is only about 10 minutes. Compared to current mass-produced ternary lithium batteries, even with the support of DC fast charging, it usually takes 30 minutes to charge the battery from 20% to 80%, while lithium iron phosphate takes about 45 minutes.
Rich resources and cost advantages
The abundance of sodium resources in the crust is 2.75%, ranking sixth in the crust, while the abundance of lithium resources in the crust is only 0.0065% and unevenly distributed, with 75% of lithium resources concentrated in South America. The economically exploitable lithium resources in China are scarce, with 80% relying on imports. The competition for lithium resources both domestically and internationally is becoming increasingly fierce, leading to unstable prices of lithium carbonate and higher cost inputs. And sodium resources are widely distributed and easy to extract, so the price is stable and low, about 250 yuan/ton, which is 1/25 of the price of lithium carbonate. The BOM cost of sodium ion batteries is about 30% lower than that of lithium batteries, indicating a significant cost advantage.
Outstanding safety performance
Due to the wide electrochemical window of sodium element, sodium ion batteries have good thermal stability and are less prone to thermal runaway and explosion. In addition, sodium ion batteries have strong compatibility with lithium battery equipment. In terms of electrolyte and separator research and development, mature technologies related to lithium batteries can also be borrowed.
Widely used in the market
Sodium ion batteries will have broad application prospects in scenarios with low energy density requirements. Especially in the current advantageous usage scenarios of lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as electric two wheeled vehicles, low-speed four wheeled vehicles, energy storage stations, household energy storage products, etc., after large-scale commercialization, sodium ion batteries will have a place.
The cost of sodium batteries will be much lower than that of lithium batteries in 2024
At present, the energy density of layered oxide materials in CNAE reaches 165Wh/kg and the number of cycles reaches 5000; The energy density of the polyanionic material reaches 125Wh/kg and the number of cycles reaches 7000; In 2024, it is expected that the energy density of layered oxides will reach 180h/kg with 6500 cycles, and the energy density of polyanions will reach 145Wh/kg with 9000 cycles; By 2025, it is expected that the energy density of layered oxides will reach 195Wh/kg with 7500 cycles, and the energy density of polyanions will reach 165Wh/kg with 10000 cycles.
CNAE believes that 2024 will usher in a very good turning point for sodium ion batteries. The cost of sodium batteries will be much lower than that of lithium batteries, and the material cost will decrease by 30% -40%. The main reason for the cost reduction is: 1. The abundance of metallic sodium crust is high, and the price is much lower than that of lithium. 2. The collection fluid is different. The negative current collector of lithium-ion batteries must be copper foil, while the positive and negative current collectors of sodium batteries can both be cheaper aluminum foil. The demand for sodium ion batteries will explode rapidly in 2024.
Sodium ion batteries are superior to lithium iron phosphate batteries in terms of raw material cost, capacity retention at low temperatures, and over discharge resistance. They surpass lead-acid batteries in all aspects, and are expected to have a greater cost reduction in energy storage applications in electric two wheeled vehicles (replacing lead-acid batteries), A00 level electric vehicles, and energy storage fields (replacing lithium iron phosphate batteries) by 2025.
Advantages are always defeated by trends, resources are the underlying logic, and ultimately costs speak for themselves. Technology will continue to develop and innovate, and problems will not be problems. The cost of sodium electricity is its unchanging underlying logic.
CNAE has been deeply involved in the field of sodium battery power and energy storage products, actively exploring technological innovation in sodium batteries, building a better development platform for sodium batteries, and striving to become a pioneer in promoting sodium battery products, creating a new path of high-quality development with excellent industry, high quality, good efficiency, and sustainability.